What happened?
On 29 September, former Japanese foreign minister Fumio Kishida was voted to become the next prime minister of Japan in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. Kishida narrowly beat his main rival Taro Kono, the vaccine minister, by 256-255 in the first round of voting by party members. The second round of voting dominated by LDPs members in Diet (Japan's parliament) concreted Kishida's position and secured his win.

After the vote, Kishida told LDP lawmakers: "We remain under a national crisis. We must strive and continue our coronavirus response and forge an economic package in the size of dozens of trillions of yen by the end of the year."  He called for unity among party members as he leads the LDP for the general election slated for November and next year's election of the House of Councillors, the upper chamber of parliament.

What is the background?
First, the post-Abe political compass in Japan. Shinzo Abe's unexpected resignation, citing health reasons, set off a frenzy among the LDP leaders, replacing him with Abe's right hand Yoshihide Suga. 'Abenomics' for managing the Japanese economy was the highlight of his regime.  The transition was a significant turning point in Japanese politics and foreign affairs. Abe's legacy is the most critical variable for a positive alliance with the United States and assertive foreign policies. His reorientation in Tokyo's stand towards rising China, with the Quad grouping and lead in Trans-pacific Partnership, diversified Japanese foreign policies.   

Second, a quick analysis of Suga's performance. The challenges for the Suga government included a wide spectrum of geopolitical tensions and regional security regarding Taiwan and East and the South China Sea. With the slow vaccination rollout and unpopular opinion of going ahead with the Tokyo Olympics, public support for Suga declined. 

Third, the divide within the LDP. Factional politics is an essential element in the Japanese political system. According to reports, LDP has seven factions; five are significant, and two are considered minor. The LDP leadership election outcome is dependent on the political footings and equations within the inner factions. In the case of Tokyo Olympics 2020, the power struggle inside LDP has been visible between leaders who support and the ones against the Olympics. The factional divide became evident with the leadership elections between Fumio Kishida and Taro Kono wherein Kishida won by a small margin.

Fourth, the rise of Kishida. Fumio Kishida will be Japan's 100th prime minister. Assuming that the LDP retains the power in the upcoming elections, Kishida will have to face challenges of navigating Japan's pandemic response and jump-starting its stagnant economic recovery. His stand on major issues, starting from bridging the economic inequities and orienting foreign policies to climate change and gender equality, will determine his support.  

What does this mean?
First, the changing dynamics. With robust leadership and a capable team, Kishida may focus on strategically maintaining a stable equilibrium without compromising Japanese interests. Second, the choice. The leadership election is for debate whether LDP moved out of Abe's shadow. Kishida as a choice could work against Japan's 'revolving-door' leadership.